I've had a few questions recently about the chances of Michigan landing a top ten class, so I thought I'd address the situation in a post.
I know its a good year for the Midwest prospects, and I know Hoke/Mattison are great recruiters, but I just don't see it happening this year. Here's why:
1) Michigan doesn't have that many scholarships to give out. UM's class will be a similar size to last year, with around 19-20 places available. It's hard to beat out SEC schools who sign 30 kids a year, even if 25 of those 30 are three star guys.
2) Top ten is hard to achieve. There are a lot of good schools in college football, and many consistently bring in better classes than UM. Here's a list of schools that I can pretty much guarantee will have a better class this year:
- Florida State
These are schools that produce top 10 classes year after year; there's eight names on that list, and to be honest I should probably add Notre Dame to make nine. Like it or not, the Irish figure to have a strong year, on and off the field.
3) Winning games matters. Brady Hoke might have won over the Michigan fan base already, but a lot of recruits will want to see what he achieves on the field before they think 'Michigan is back'. RR's 2010 and 2011 classes struggled because recruits were always waiting to see the finished product on the field, and unfortunately it never came about. Hopefully Hoke can deliver.
4) Last week Michigan offered 2013 QB prospect Shane Morris, almost two years before he'll sign his letter of intent. My point? Other coaches have been recruiting these 2012 kids longer than Hoke has at Michigan. He only took over a few months ago, and that first month was spent trying to salvage the 2011 class.
5) Five star guys help. Michigan is in a good position with a few top100 caliber guys, but I don't think they will end up signing that elite prospect that really headlines the class. Stefon Diggs is probably the only 5* guy right now that Michigan has a chance of signing, and thats only based on us signing his teammate, Blake Countess.
Conclusion: If all goes well for Michigan, they could land just outside the top 10. But for this to happen they'd probably need to sign the Detroit trio, Dan O'Brien, Wormley, Diamond and a bunch of other four star prospects.
Personally I think they will be somewhere between 15-25, but heck, it's only April, a lot could change between now and February.