Thursday, 24 November 2011

OSU Weekend (incl prediction)

A win would:
- Give us our first win against Ohio in way too long
- Probably send us to a BCS bowl game
- Make us believe that Hoke really is a god and that a national title in 2013 is a strong possibility

A loss would:
- Simply ruin our season, there's a big difference between 9-3 and 10-2 with a win over OSU.

The stakes are high, and as usual there will be a lot of very talented recruits on hand to witness 'The Game'. A lot of them will be 2013 kids, as well as a lot of 2012 commits, but there are going to be some big time 2012 targets that Michigan would love to secure a commitment from this weekend.

I'll start with arguably the most important, Brionte Dunn. He'll be on campus for his 2nd visit in as many weeks and despite being an OSU commit, many people (incl me!) feel that Michigan is probably the favorite. He's enrolling early so a decision won't be too far away, this weekend could just seal the deal for Michigan.

Amara Darboh is first of our official visitors on Saturday, and Michigan is also in a fairly strong  position for him. He visited Notre Dame last Saturday and it could well be a UM-ND battle, and I think UM will win this one.

Michigan doesn't necessarily need a 6th offensive line commit in this class, but if Joshua Garnett was to announce for the Wolverines, it would be very hard to turn him away. He's taking his official for the game, and I'm pretty optimistic about UM's chances here, especially after seeing a CBS recruiting analyst predict him to UM.

Jehu Chesson has flown under the radar recently in terms of Michigan's WR recruiting as the focus has largely been on Darboh, Payton and Diggs. But Jehu takes his official visit to A2 this weekend, and anything could happen here.

As mentioned above, there will be a lot of 2013 recruits at the game, but few of them will have an offer, unlike Laquon Treadwell. The WR teammate of Anthony Standifer has visited Michigan a couple times already this year and could be a good bet for the next 2013 commit. Shane Morris will be there, so if those two get talking, it can only be a good thing for UM.

A lot of people are already asking the question of whether to storm the field, but that really is premature. Despite their poor record, OSU is still a decent football team and probably has a more talented team overall than Michigan (based on recruit rankings). A win for the Buckeyes would put them to 7-5 and actually make the season not a complete disaster.

I haven't watched much of OSU's games this year, but what I have seen gives me at least some cause for concern. Braxton Miller is not a great passer, but he has the ability to buy a lot of time with his legs and then find open receivers. Examples - last plays of Purdue and Wisconsin games in regulation time. Michigan has to keep him contained, force him to make the tough throws.

Apart from him, the rest of OSU's offense is basically Dan Herron running it. Michigan did a good job against Rex Burkhead last week, but Herron is probably a little better, so that's something to watch out for. Still, I have faith in Mattison and his players to get the job done and hold OSU under 20 points.

On offense, I think the key to victory is pretty simple; don't turn the ball over. OSU's defense is good but not great, so if Michigan plays smart football and executes, they should be able to put up 30 points, which will almost certainly be enough for victory.

If the game were in Columbus, I think it would be really close, but given the home field advantage, the superior coaching and greater motivation, Michigan should win this game by around 2-3 touchdowns. I think both defenses will come out strong before Michigan gets going on offense in the 2nd quarter, taking a 10 point lead into halftime. A quick flurry of 3rd quarter TDs, help Michigan to run away with it...

Prediction: Michigan 35 ; Ohio 17


  1. Benji,
    Well said. I have UM winning 17-12. I like your prediction much better.

  2. Sam Webb has a nice report on the website about Urban Meyer and recruiting. If you have a chance to read it you should.

  3. I'd like to see Fitz go for at least 109 yds on the ground, making him the first RB since Mike Hart to go for 1000 yds rushing.

  4. i got a really bad feeling about this game for some reason.

  5. That's not uncommon after the last 10 years. But, this year is different than almost all of those. This streak almost certainly would have ended by now, but the RR era really screwed that up. I think UM wins this one by 1 or 2 td's. Also, when UM is announced to a BCS game, I'm calling the Dunn commitment. I think within the next 2 weeks following "The Game" half for UM's remaining spots are filled for this years class, with the possibility of another 2013 commit.

  6. He it is folks... Sadly i think its denard wins it or losses it for us... Not by putting up big numbers but by turning the ball over. If denard doesnt throw bad interciptions or fumbles it we win... If he does... We are going to loose a close one. We need to put him in easy plays where he wont make the big turnover or dumb choice... Lets see how much he has improved!

  7. Ok so this will be corny...

    But for those of us in the US and those who celebrate it...Happy Thanksgiving. I for one am thankful for the great job that Coaches Hoke, Mattison, and Borges have done one and off the field this year. I think we can all agree that the changes that have been made to this program are huge steps in the right direction. Michigan football is on the road to recovery to a major program again. The job they have done recruiting as well as teaching kids who they didn't recruit how to play proper football is nothing short of remarkable. I can't wait to watch the improvement in this team for the rest of this year, next and beyond.

  8. Ohio will be very motivated to win this game. This is the season for them. We need to stay focused, play mistake free and leave it all out on the field. If we can do this, we win by two touchdowns. If we over-pursue on defense and play sloppy on offense...we lose in a close one.

  9. I wasn't optumistic last week and I was wrong. Hopefully I'm wrong again! I still got OSU 17 UM 14. I think everyone knows Meyer is going to OSU, so they will be playing Fickell. Go blue!!!

  10. Ohio has the 3rd worse passing offense in the NCAA, THE worst if you eliminate Bausermans #'s and factor an average for Miller. Ohio is a one dimensional offense that will call on their best receiver going up to make a play to mix things up. I'm expecting us to shut down their offense completely except for a few blown coverages on deep routes (maybe). No team in America is more prepared for any one game than Michigan is for this Saturday. Our offense vs their defense is the only question in my mind. If they stick with the read option looks like last week and a run heavy attack then we could seal the deal in the first half, or the end of the 3rd quarter (by the time we wear them down.)

  11. jordan diamond, heading to ann arbor according to tomvh, im not sure if this means anything about our chances with garnett and banner. But we could be back in the hunt with Diamond.